Can the Democrats Can Still Take the House?

Not dark yet, but it's gettin' there....

Greg Mitchell is the author of more than a dozen books including “The Tunnels” “Tricky Dick and the Pink Lady” and “The Campaign of the Century” and now writer/director of three award-winning films aired via PBS, including “Atomic Cover-up” and “Memorial Day Massacre” (up for an Emmy). You can still subscribe to this newsletter for free.

My daily (now it’s Tuesday morning) update: As I noted nearly a week ago, the Democrats still have a chance to win the House, with many tight races still not called and Democrats steadily cutting the GOP lead. The current NY Times map has it at 214-205 but that does not include two California races where GOPers conceded last night and the Bynum race in Oregon called earlier, plus a race in Washington where the two top candidates are both Republicans, so it’s really 215-208, with 218 needed for a majority. California’s ultra slow counting really holding things back.

Which sounds daunting, but my close analysis for all undecided races reveals that Dems do have a shot. Plus Trump is loving appointing House members to Cabinet spots and other posts so there will more open seats and special elections coming.

So, here, with Dems needing 10 wins from this group. They are currently leading in 5 of these races, have a shot in 8 others where they trail slightly—so they just need to hang on where winning, and take 5 of 8 undecided. Tough but can thread the needle:

Alaska: Peltola (trails but is incumbent}

AZ: Engel (trailing but close, lot of votes out).

CA: Costa, Levin, Min (slim lead). Gray, Tran, Rollins and Salas (trail slightly but still good chance).

CO: Caraveo (trails but is incumbent).

IOWA: Bohanon (trails slightly).

OH: Kaptur (small lead and longtime incumbent).

ME: Golden (leads by a little and incumbent)

Thursday morning: Well, my prediction for a Harris victory was off, but I did get GOP control of Senate correct (including likely loss for our beloved Sherrod Brown), and Dems still do have chance to take the House with all those uncalled, and generally Dem-leaning, races still out there. My count this morning, looking closely at all uncalled races, leads to me to guess, however, that Dems will still fall one or two districts short….

I’m avoiding most of the post-election pundit analysis, i.e. blather. Many citing one key reason Harris lost and not the six or seven possible factors. And it’s laughable that many ignore or downplay perhaps the biggest one: the fact that she is a woman, and a woman of color. Take what most people tell exit pollsters with a grain of salt. Often it’s not the true, or most pressing, reason for their vote, one way or another.

Next week’s New Yorker cover, by Barry Blitt: