Saturday Update: House of the Rising Democrats--How They Still Can Hold It
A Saturday review of the few remaining races in this shocking turnaround. Plus: Wilco, Jason Isbell, Bob Marley, and Allison Russell.
Saturday night’s all right for updates: Major win for Dems as new votes give WA upset to terrific Marie Perez over an arch Trumper. And in Nevada, big batch goes to Cortez Masto and she finally takes lead by 5000—and that race is now called for her as Democrats retain control of Senate. The Warnock win in GA will now take some power away from Manchin and Sinema.
In more good news on a necessary House upset, new votes in AZ find Kirsten Engel cutting Ciscomani’s lead in half to about 1500. Plus new batch in CA adds 600 to Katie Porter’s lead and she is now up by more than 5000. And Mike Levin race now called for him there as his lead tops 11,000. Salinas also gets nod in Oregon. More good news: Kari Lake continues to fade in AZ governor’s race amid her desperate and laughable claims of “fix.”
Earlier Saturday:
On Thursday morning in this space, I might have been first anywhere to seriously predict—and lay out—how the Democrats would accomplish come-from-behind control of the House. And so far it has transpired almost precisely as I mapped it, with one tight race after another, from Nevada to Maryland, called for the Dems. Now far fewer contested races remain and, true, Democrats still need to win most of them. So here are the ones to keep an eye on, even as the party is poised to retain the Senate. But first, subscribe, it’s still free. And, Woody sez, thank our “California Stars” with Wilco and Jason Isbell.
To start off, the New York Times map this morning has the GOP with an ever-shrinking 211-201 bulge. That means Republicans need seven more wins and the Dems 17 to make the House their home. Sounds daunting, but consider that there are a bunch of slam dunks coming for Democrats in California.
Also, as I note below, the Times is not yet counting two clear D wins in Maine and Alaska only because ranked voting there introduces a bit of uncertainty. And they refuse to call the upset in Colorado by the Democrat, Caraveo, even though her opponent has conceded. So let’s start by saying the Dems need 14 more.
WASHINGTON
In a major surprise, the very appealing blue-collar Marie Perez maintains a 5000 vote edge over her Trumpy election denying opponent Joe Kent. This is now a must-have for the Dems. So there’s 1 of the 14. (Update: she just won.) Perez tweeted last night: “Nearly all of the remaining ballots in #WA03 will be counted tomorrow. Joe Kent and I have both repeatedly pledged to accept the results of this election. That moment is coming soon.”
OREGON
Andrea Salinas leads and is still favored to win. Fellow Dem, Jamie McLeod-Skinner, is now on the ropes but has not conceded. So count just 1.
CALIFORNIA
As I’ve noted, this is slowest-counting state but Dems figure to pick up many not-yet-called races where they are heavily favored: at least 7. We’ve highlighted the tough races of Rep. Katie Porter and Rep. Mike Levin in SoCal but last night her lead was boosted to 4500 and his to 9000 and they appear heading back to D.C. So let’s say 2 more.
Dem candidates to the north, Salas and Smith, continue to trail vs. incumbents Valadao and Garcia. However, in the past two elections, many Dems, including Katie Porter, have come back from similar deficits to win in CA in the final week (meaning next week). Still, Dems will probably need two upsets somewhere else and now have strong shots in districts #13 and in #41 (plus the Valadao and Garcia contests and longshot #3). So this may work out. Let’s count, with some uneasiness, 11 wins in all from CA.
ARIZONA
Two possible upsets suddenly brewing in races in districts #1 (where the D, Jevin Hodge, leads) and #6 (where Kirsten Engel trails). So cross fingers and count 1 more, although 2 are possible and will be needed if California doesn’t quite deliver. And bonus points: Kari Lake now trailing in governor’s race.
COLORADO
Amid feverish national attention, the horrid Boebert still maintains 1100 vote edge over Frisch and the race appears headed for a full recount—which may not be done until December 13. It’s a very extensive and careful process. Automatic if vote ends with .5 or less margin, or a candidate can pay for it. Frisch, in fact, is raising funds for this effort which includes possible “curing” of thousands of rejected ballots—voters have a few days yet to correct whatever was wrong originally. Plus military and overseas ballots yet to be counted. Longshot for Frisch but possible. Note: The Colorado secretary of state, Jena Griswold, a Democrat who has tussled with election deniers, was re-elected on Tuesday.
NEW YORK
The race for Conole, the Democrat, looks increasingly out of reach but it’s not off the map yet as he hopes for final votes from Syracuse.
Presto: That’s 14 (plus those gimmes in Maine, Alaska and Colorado) to give Dems the magical 218.
Bottom Line: This is very do-able, with those upsets within reach, though, sadly, one must admit, the Boebert recount might give her the satisfaction of handing the House to the GOP.
Still, let’s join Bob Marley singing his “Redemption Song,” and then the wonderful Allison Russell with still valid call for voter turnout in Georgia in the December runoff.