Yes, the Democrats Can Still Keep the House!

And it's no longer such a longshot as more wins arrive.

Updated Friday. As of 2 p.m. ET, control of House almost a toss-up, with slight GOP edge. 10 p.m. More House races called for Dems (including three in Nevada plus Maine), Porter extends lead, CBS just called AZ for Sen. Kelly. Dangerous Kari Lake going down in governor’s race any day now. And Adrian Fontes (D) wins the election for key posy of Arizona Secretary of State, defeating election denier and buffoon Mark Finchem (R).

I’ve been an election fanatic since the age of four when, I’m told, I pedaled my bicycle around the neighborhood hailing Eisenhower. At twelve, I led the classroom debate for Nixon (this is true) vs. JFK, and lost 25-2. Overcoming that shame, by 1968 I was running my college’s Clean for Gene McCarthy group and risking my life at the infamous Dem convention in Chicago. Since then I’ve written two major Random House books on notorious races (Upton Sinclair’s in 1934 and Nixon vs. Douglas in 1950), two quickie volumes on the Obama wins, and now please check out a PBS film, The First Attack Ads, still airing but now free for all online.

Like other commentators in the past day or so, I have observed that while the Democrats avoided a “Red Wave” they had almost certainly lost the House by at least a few seats, with GOPers led by Kevin McCarthy already assuming a hostile takeover. But wait…how many of us have actually looked deeply at the many races not yet decided?

Various election maps on Thursday morning showed that Repubs needed to pick up only about 11 seats to take control while the Dems had to nail down about 29. So it’s a done deal, right? Well, not quite. My own deep dive and analysis shows that the Dems do have a path, even if fairly narrow, and largely thanks to our friends out in the Golden State. (Friday update: Since I raised this seriously nearly 24 hours ago, other analysts have taken a fresh look.)

And it would be delicious if a Rep. Katie Porter win and Rep. Lauren Boebert loss ended up deciding it.

My starting point was the Thursday morning New York Times map, which had the Ds at 189 and the Rs at 207. The Dems, thus, needed to win 29 seats as of then. This was not likely, but—this may surprise most of you—certainly plausible. Update: In fact, since I started this piece, seven more races have been called for Dems including two upsets. Also, election guru Dave Wasserman has called the AZ Senate race for Mark Kelly and trends in voting suggest another Senate win for Dems in Nevada—Friday night vote dump cut GOPer Laxalt’s lead to 800—which would clinch control and make a Georgia win icing on the cake.

The key to House control, as I’ve hinted, is out in mainly blue California with its massive trove of seats, many not called due to the state’s annoyingly ultra-lengthy counting process. So let’s try to count to 29, shall we, boys and girls?

CALIFORNIA

2: There are districts where the two finalists chosen in primaries were both Dems but the races have not yet been called. So these are certain D seats.

8: These are races not yet called but where Dems are not only leading but were heavily favored to win out front. Districts: #6, 9, 13, 21, 26, 35, 38, 46.

2: Tight races in So Cal but where Dems were expected to win (if not so strongly), with Rep. Katie Porter and Rep. Mike Levin. Porter doubled her lead to 3000 on Thursday night, and Levin gained to plus-6000. (Update Friday night: Katie just stretched lead to 4500 and Levin to 9000.) The fallback here is that Dems are still alive, although trailing, in three other districts #3, #22 and #27. But late counting pushed Dems to many surprise wins in the past two cycles.

ALASKA

1: Looking good here for the wonderful Rep. Peltola and with Sarah Palin going down, a nice bonus!

WASHINGTON

1: Rep. Kim Schrier now declared as winner on Friday so let’s count that. Plus, a Dem given little chance in #3, Marie Perez, is now leading against a MAGA nut and may very well win this (but we won’t count on that quite yet).

OREGON

2 Dems Salinas and Hoyle are leading and were favored, so let’s count them. And Dems are still alive in another race, though McLeod-Skinner likely to lose. (Update: Race now called for Hoyle. McLeod-Skinner lost, a progressive in a swing district.)

ARIZONA

2 We’ll be conservative here and just give Dems one seat which was just called for them a few minutes ago (district #4) plus one of the two where they lead right now and always had a decent shot (#1 and 6).

NEVADA

3 Was shaky for awhile but NY Times and others late Friday called three races for the Dems.

NEW MEXICO

1: Flippin’ seat has gone to the Dem, Vazquez.

COLORADO

1 or maybe 2? Well, let’s hope. In another flippin’ upset, district #8 has just been called for the Dems. A second pickup requires the dreaded Boebert to lose—she now leads by 1100 votes and surely headed to a recount and GOP whining, skullduggery and lawsuits. So control of the House could hang in the balance until December.

ILLINOIS

1 District #17 just went D for Sorensen in update.

MARYLAND

1 Trone trails narrowly but gaining and many now predict he will pull it out. Update: Most analysts have just called it for him.

NEW YORK

1 His opponent has now conceded in #18 to good guy Rep. Ryan, and AP called it on Friday. And there’s still a chance for one more, in #22, where Conole barely trails but counts on mail votes from Syracuse.

MAINE

1 Rep. Golden was favored and leads by a fair amount but race not yet called. Update, Dave Wasserman just called it for Golden!

So, what’s the total from above? Not quite there at 27. But two more from this group are quite possible: the Boebert race in CO, Perez in WA, another in AZ, or the one in OR—and/or one modest upset in CA.

As I said: a narrow path and far from certain to be navigated successfully. But….we haven’t lost Speaker Pelosi just yet. And if the Dems do fall short it may well be because Dems here in New York flubbed re-districting, unlike in, say, Florida. Stay tuned and keep your eye on the results and that map….

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Greg Mitchell is the author of a dozen books, including the bestseller The Tunnels (on escapes under the Berlin Wall), the current The Beginning or the End (on MGM’s wild atomic bomb movie), and The Campaign of the Century (on Upton Sinclair’s left-wing race for governor of California), which was recently picked by the Wall St. Journal as one of five greatest books ever about an election. His 2021 film, Atomic Cover-up, has been featured at a dozen festivals this year and is winning awards. His new film, The First Attack Ads, was aired on hundreds of PBS stations in October 2022 and can be viewed online here. For nearly all of the 1970s he was the #2 editor at the legendary Crawdaddy. Later he served as longtime editor of Editor & Publisher magazine. He recently co-produced a film about Beethoven’s Ninth Symphony.